Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.090848 3.324498 3.587096 3.908846 4.299575 4.769108 5.394073
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.783424 3.081276 3.439300 3.916135 4.561543 5.455541 6.912193
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.585283 2.912353 3.322396 3.899949 4.746455 6.065835 8.700955
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.412028 2.746096 3.175958 3.803749 4.775773 6.432717 10.416004
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.342655 2.701293 3.177709 3.906323 5.121294 7.489720 15.622665
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.215526 2.567957 3.042314 3.782144 5.057391 7.712246 19.203675
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.103383 2.446537 2.912561 3.649336 4.949610 7.793351 23.062676
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.025421 2.366320 2.834584 3.587999 4.959788 8.173910 34.127595
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.000595 2.356645 2.856291 3.687781 5.299636 9.701145 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.994328 2.371578 2.914322 3.855047 5.831960 12.667346 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.955147 2.336972 2.893881 3.881704 6.060977 15.013799 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.921094 2.307651 2.879008 3.915914 6.321729 18.577735 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.843927 2.214762 2.762752 3.756844 6.061182 17.748804 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.805249 2.176915 2.732061 3.758280 6.242291 22.073000 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.766401 2.136880 2.695090 3.743109 6.375487 27.858117 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.716297 2.078092 2.624528 3.654885 6.270315 29.472130 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.704202 2.075224 2.644443 3.748920 6.763175 75.208792 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.655205 2.014978 2.566496 3.635046 6.539997 67.288785 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.607030 1.954755 2.486620 3.512866 6.273198 53.750980 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.573109 1.915186 2.439689 3.456299 6.222900 65.322374 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.567413 1.917992 2.463189 3.548276 6.720123 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.571378 1.935518 2.512347 3.701943 7.560959 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.554346 1.919911 2.503608 3.726372 7.893491 NaN NaN